Alright, so I went 1-4 in Week 3. That’s obviously not good. I even got my “Lock of the Week” wrong with the Minnesota Vikings losing at home to the Buffalo Bills. But did anybody really pick the Bills to win that game? Chances are, the Vikings’ loss to the Bills created pure chaos in everyone’s Survivor pool.
Week 3 was wild. Not even the New England Patriots could bounce back in Detroit. The Lions made the Pats look foolish, and that game was the icing on the cake for my NFL picks last weekend. I’m now 8-7 on the year with the money line. As part of the “PodcastOne SportsNet Challenge,” I’ve plummeted down the leaderboard in their point-based system, which you can check out at PodcastoneSportsnet.com.
But it’s a long season, and there’s no way it can get worse than last Sunday for me. So, let’s get back on track. Here are my picks for Week 4:
GREEN BAY PACKERS over Buffalo Bills
-That’s right, I’m picking against Buffalo again. In fact, I almost made Green Bay my “Lock of the Week.” There’s no way that the Bills go into Lambeau Sunday at 1 p.m. and beat the Packers. There’s just no way, I don’t care what they did to the Vikings last week. At 1-1-1, Green Bay is a 10-point favorite in this one after losing to the Redskins in Washington last Sunday. The way this league works, Buffalo will lose by three touchdowns. Give me the Packers all day at home in this one.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Tennessee Titans
-How about those Titans? They’re 2-1 after winning two straight including a huge win last Sunday in Jacksonville, just a week after the Jaguars slapped around the Patriots. It’s another example of how this league makes no sense. But still, those Titans host the 2-1 Eagles, who saw quarterback Carson Wentz return in a win over the Indianapolis Colts last week. I’m not sold on Philly this year, but I’m certainly still not sold on Tennessee. The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite on the road Sunday at 1. For good reason. They’re the better team. I’ll take Philadelphia to win.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over San Francisco 49ers
-The story here is that Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the season with a torn ACL that he suffered in the 49ers’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. San Fran is now 1-2, and really has no hope in the same division as the Los Angeles Rams. If Garoppolo was healthy for this game against the Chargers on Sunday at 4:25 in LA, then they might’ve just been your standard 3-point road dog. Instead, the Chargers are a 10.5-point favorite with a 1-2 record of their own. LA (I still want to say “San Diego”) is coming off a loss to the Rams. In my opinion, it’s always a risky bet to put your money on any game that Philip Rivers is involved in, but again, the absence of Garoppolo makes this nearly a lock for the Chargers to win the game at home.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Baltimore Ravens
-The 1-1-1 Steelers enter Week 4 in a tie for last place in the AFC North with the 1-1-1 Cleveland Browns. But the Steelers are coming off their first win of the season, a 30-27 victory over the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay on Monday night. So it will be a short week for Pittsburgh, but that might be a good thing, considering all the distractions that surround them. One less day to prepare means one less day for potential drama. I’d stay away from the spread here, because with the 2-1 Ravens coming to Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Football, you know how these AFC North dogfights go. Baltimore is a 3-point underdog, but is coming off a 27-14 win over the Denver Broncos. I think the Steelers will build off their big win over Tampa Bay, but I could see this being just a field-goal game. In that case, I’ll also take the home team in prime time. Give me the Steelers to pick up their second win of the season.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Miami Dolphins
-I know what you’re thinking: “Danny, stop jinxing the Patriots!” First off, it’s not me, it’s them. And more specifically, it’s the Patriots’ play calling that has them at 1-2 to begin the season. They host the 3-0 Dolphins Sunday at 1. Even as one of just three undefeated teams in the NFL, Miami is a 7-point underdog. But that’s just the reality of an inevitable Patriots bounce-back game, which I admittedly thought would happen last Sunday night in Detroit. It didn’t, but it will happen here. Patriots win. And if they don’t, and the ship truly is sinking, I’m going down with them. Save the women and children. Let me float away in peace.
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